The year 2012 seen from Eastern Europe
Published on by Mateusz HudzikowskiIt is year 2012 now and still the most significant questions for Europe remain unanswered. How we, European citizens, are going to deal with so called financial crisis? Will European Union live through economic troubles in each member state and what will be the impact of it? What will happen with EU in the world where Asia starts to play greater and greater role and the West is grappling with new problems such as Iranian ambition of becoming a world power?
These issues are equally vivid among new EU members, particularly among countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Each of them has specific way of looking at these issues. Poland is no different.
Project of European integration is unprecedented phenomenon in the history of the world economics and politics. It is the only one to ensure the longest period without the wars and never seen in Europe’s history prosperity. However, for the Polish and CEE countries this celebration lasted very briefly. Theirs adventure with the EU started in 2004 but then came the year 2008, year of the first global financial crisis, which resulted in undermining the EU’s position in the world. Let’s have a closer look.
Liberated in the early 90s from the influence of the defeated in the Cold War “evil empire” – the USSR – Poles began the arduous, but consistent efforts to participate in European and Euro-Atlantic structures (NATO 1999) Thus, the poor, communist country became a rightful partner in a safe and affluent community of western countries. Nearly 10 years ago – in December 2002 – Polish negotiations with the EU were concluded.
In June 2003 Polish society endorsed the decision to join the Union in a public referendum, and subsequently in May 2004 Poland was already among the EU countries. At the same time rife inflow of European funds persisted, driving the economic situation in Poland. About 1 million of Poles have found work abroad and some of them began to transfer the capital to the country. In 2007 due to accession to the Schengen zone the movement of people, including tourists, facilitated.
The first 4 years (2004-2008) was for the Poles like ‘honey moon’ in Europe. Only the most radical Polish politicians questioned merits of integration. Money from Brussels and the presence in the elite, global establishment was treated as obvious and substantiated compensation for the decades of slavery and misery of the Poles.
The basic question was: how to increase prosperity as soon as possible? Nobody thought that one day the source of this wealth can just run out. It was assumed a priori that since it is well, it will be better in the future.
Both in the internal politics of the Republic of Poland, as well as on the European forum, Polish decision-makers concentrated on immediate, ad hoc issues rather than permanent, long-term economic growth or strategy. Consequently, as the crisis of the 2008 came, it became clear that neither Europe, nor Poland have an ‘emergency action plan’ in case of ‘turbulence”. That crisis has passed as quickly as it started and it seemed that the problem solved itself.
But the following 4 years (2008-2012) brought greater realism and growing concerns about the future. Poles saw that the EU, NATO, and even the U.S., cannot deal with the problems as well as in the past (see: economy, financial markets, Iraq and Afghanistan, Libya, change of the global power balance) and therefore they are no longer a safe refuge, although there is no alternative for them. From the Warsaw’s perspective East in the shape of Russia presents a threat and for some politicians – Germany as well. Equally disturbing – partially exaggerated and partially real – is another economic crisis, which showed that the state of the world’s, especially Europe’s economy is more serious than it was previously thought. However, the Polish economy do not feel it as strongly as more globalized organisms with developed financial sectors. Greater fear in Poland raises the prospect of turning off (or turning down) valve with EU money. According to some Polish entrepreneurs around the year 2000 with its economic slowdown, the situation in Poland was worse than in 2008 or today but despite that in the society there was more optimism – unlike now. It is because prospects in that time were better for the average Polish worker and employer. However, mostly concealed by the national media, Polish Presidency of the EU was a bitter pill to swallow as well, as apparently did not provide topics for discussion. Countries of Eurozone have proved to be so busy with their own problems, that even being the formal leader, Poland remained second league player.
Consequently, in Poland, questions posed in the introduction about the future of Europe sound a bit different.
In terms of improving economic management and administration, a lot depends on the Poles themselves, and not from the meanders of the global crisis, hence Polish citizen directs his claims and pretentions at the government rather than international financiers or Brussels. Therefore question is whether Poland is fully exploiting its potential, or maybe already carried out all necessary reforms; whether chosen direction of development is correct; or may it financially support itself in the future?
The derivational aspect of this problem is a question about the condition of EU member states economies: for Polish people the role of Poland in EU is important, and the stronger economically Poland is, the more important is this role.
Therefore crisis in Greece and Italy is nothing terrible for the Poles, if in comparison they will look good. What remains questionable is the fact that being a country that is still working its way up, Poland will need to pay attention to countries that live on credit.
Poland, as a medium-sized European player, cannot have global ambitions, therefore its priorities in foreign policy is associated with the region of CEE and EU as a whole. Unfortunately, in times of ‘crisis’ Polish expectations regarding EU are not met. There is no chance to have common and firm policy towards Russia and EU’s enlargement to Ukraine and Turkey is currently only Polish rather than pan-European hope.
Until now, the motto sounded: ‘strong Poland in a strong Europe’. Although it is not openly stated, even if there are some hopes linked with the EU, realistic voice should prompt that even if there is no more ‘strong Europe’, a ‘strong Poland’ must remain a vital goal.
Taking this into consideration, it should be decided now whether to continue the existing domestic and foreign policy, being guided by the momentum or rather redefine its priorities.
Translated by Mroowka
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